The Plain Truth about Plain Packaging: An Econometric Analysis of the Australian 2011 Tobacco Plain Packaging Act

From December 2012 standardised packaging for tobacco products – known as ‘plain packaging’ – has been mandatory in Australia. This paper evaluates the preliminary evidence – in the form of ABS household expenditure on tobacco data – to establish whether the policy has been successful. Despite our econometric efforts, the data refused to yield any indication this policy has been successful; there is no empirical evidence to support the notion that the plain packaging policy has resulted in lower household expenditure on tobacco than there otherwise would have been. There is some faint evidence to suggest, ceteris paribus, household expenditure on tobacco increased.